Short-term load forecasting based on load fluctuation rate Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • The variability of load data curve is studied based on the historical data and the concepts of RLF (Rates of the Load Fluctuation) and the IFR (Impact factor of the Rate) are presented. The characteristics of power consumption in Texas and the similarity of rate change in same time period are summed up based on the analysis of ERCOT data. Based on the statistical analysis of historical RLF data, the experiential RLF value is figured out, according to which and combined with the real-time load data, the short-term load is corrected and accurately forecasted. It can be applied to the short-term forecasting system and the summarization of mid-long term variation law for regional electricity load.

author list (cited authors)

  • Ma, R., Jiang, F., & Huang, G. M.

publication date

  • February 2012