On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009-2012 Academic Article uri icon


  • Copyright 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out-of-sample period 2009-2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000-2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 'Heglig crisis'.

published proceedings

  • Journal of Forecasting

altmetric score

  • 0.5

author list (cited authors)

  • Bessler, D. A., Kibriya, S., Chen, J., & Price, E.

citation count

  • 7

complete list of authors

  • Bessler, David A||Kibriya, Shahriar||Chen, Junyi||Price, Edwin

publication date

  • March 2016