On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009-2012 Academic Article

abstract

• Copyright 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out-of-sample period 2009-2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000-2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 'Heglig crisis'.

authors

• Bessler, David

published proceedings

• JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

altmetric score

• 0.25

author list (cited authors)

• Bessler, D. A., Kibriya, S., Chen, J., & Price, E.

citation count

• 7

complete list of authors

• Bessler, David A||Kibriya, Shahriar||Chen, Junyi||Price, Edwin

publication date

• March 2016

publisher

• Wiley  Publisher

keywords

• Calibration
• Conflict
• Encompassing
• Probability

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1002/for.2382

start page

• 179

end page

• 188

volume

• 35

issue

• 2

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1002%2Ffor.2382