More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twentyfirst century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas (counties) compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, childwomen ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease.

published proceedings

  • POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

altmetric score

  • 152.95

author list (cited authors)

  • Johnson, K. M., Field, L. M., & Poston, D.

citation count

  • 28

complete list of authors

  • Johnson, Kenneth M||Field, Layton M||Poston, Dudley L Jr

publication date

  • December 2015

publisher