SIMULATING COLONIZATION BY EXOTIC SPECIES - A MODEL OF THE RED IMPORTED FIRE ANT (SOLENOPSIS-INVICTA) IN NORTH-AMERICA
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We describe an object-oriented, biologically mechanistic, stochastic model that simulates colonization of an exotic species (the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta) as a function of local temperature and precipitation regimes. We then evaluate model performance by simulating colonization under climatic conditions known to be (1) favorable, (2) too dry, and (3) too cold for long-term survival. Finally, we use the model to examine the likelihood of successful range expansion by simulating colonization at 13 sites representing increasingly colder and dryer climatic conditions along a line running northwest through the state of Texas, USA. The model predicted successful colonization at the favorable site and simulated failure of colonization at both of the inhospitable sites. The model predicted successful colonization at all 13 sites along the environmental gradient, including sites beyond previously proposed geographical distribution limits. Our ability to predict rate of colonization and geographical spread of invading species, particularly with regard to estimating climatically-imposed geographical limits to distribution, should be enhanced through the use of models explicitly representing the manner in which critical ecological processes change with changing ambient conditions. 1994.
