The effect of the periodic covariance variations on the probability of collision Conference Paper uri icon


  • With no atmospheric drag the uncertainty volume (6D) defined by the covariance is constant with time. However, the volume of the position covariance increases slowly and has significant periodic variations. Since the probability of collision (Pc) is dependent on the position covariance these periodic variations have a significant effect on Pc. The timing of the last observation relative to the conjunction time can be critical in determining Pc. In this paper we investigate these effects as well as patterns in the covariance relative to the last observation.

author list (cited authors)

  • Alfriend, K. T., Yang, J. H., & Frisbee, J. H.

publication date

  • December 2002