A farm level expert simulation system to aid farmers in selecting among crop insurance strategies Academic Article uri icon


  • An expert simulation system (ESS) in aid U.S. farmers select crop insurance strategies is presented. The ESS, entitled CIRMAN, relies on stochastic simulation models to analyze the problem and formulates a series of rules to make recommendations. The following lexiographic hierarchy of rules is used to rank the strategy options: (1) risk efficiency; (2) probability of farm survival; (3) probability of economic success; (4) expected value of after-tax net present value of family withdrawals plus the change in net worth over the planning horizon; (5) average expected annual net-cash farm income; and (6) average expected value of ending net worth. CIRMAN presents a recommendation and explanations on why a strategy was recommended and how it compares to specified alternatives. 1990.

published proceedings

  • Computers and Electronics in Agriculture

author list (cited authors)

  • Helms, G. L., Richardson, J. W., Cochran, M. J., & Rister, M. E.

citation count

  • 6

complete list of authors

  • Helms, Gary L||Richardson, James W||Cochran, Mark J||Rister, M Edward

publication date

  • January 1990