Model-the-model: Validating analysis models for deepwater structures with model tests
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Response analysis models are used to predict design responses for floating production systems (FPS's). While these models are the basis for present FPS's, uncertainties exist, there are differences among designers, and the models have not been well validated with prototype data. Model tests have been used to account for these uncertainties in FPS designs. However as depths increase, model tests cannot be done at reasonable scales, and the necessary truncations of mooring and riser systems create uncertainties in test results. These uncertainties impact the design either through conservative design practices or unrecognized risks, and can have safety and/or cost implications for a project. Several studies have been sponsored by DeepStar to better understand the uncertainties in the predicted responses of deepwater structures design and to provide a basis for reducing these uncertainties. Three theme structures - FPSO, Spar, and a TLP - were selected for these studies. Realistic designs were developed for each structure for water depths ranging from 3,000 to 10,000 feet, and design environments for hurricanes and loop currents were selected. Wave basin experiments of these theme structures were completed, and contractors completed detailed analyses to validate their analytical tools and compare their predictions with the data. This paper presents and discusses the overall comparisons of the predicted and measured design responses, and the uncertainties or scatter between the predicted response and measured values from the model tests. Copyright 2004, Offshore Technology Conference.
