The value of ENSO information to agriculture: Consideration of event strength and trade

abstract

• The agricultural value of El Ni-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge is measured in a value-of-information framework using economic models. We examine the value of considering the full distribution of ENSO phase strength effects as opposed to average ENSO phase strength effects, as well as the implications of considering ENSO impacts on the rest of the world (ROW). A stochastic U.S. agricultural sector model linked with a global trade model is used to assess the value of ENSO phase information. When the full distribution of ENSO phase strength is considered, the value of phase information increases twofold with respect to the average ENSO effects.

authors

• Mccarl, Bruce

published proceedings

• JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS

author list (cited authors)

• Chen, C. C., & McCarl, B. A.

complete list of authors

• Chen, CC||McCarl, BA

publication date

• December 2000

published in

• JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS  Journal

keywords

• Agricultural Sector Model (asm)
• El Nino-southern Oscillation (enso)
• Spatial Equilibrium Model
• Stochastic Programming
• Value Of Information

start page

• 368

end page

• 385

volume

• 25

issue

• 2