Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts Academic Article

abstract

• Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann et al. (1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the 3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.

authors

• Mccarl, Bruce

published proceedings

• CLIMATIC CHANGE

altmetric score

• 5

author list (cited authors)

• Chen, C. C., McCarl, B. A., & Adams, R. M.

citation count

• 32

complete list of authors

• Chen, CC||McCarl, BA||Adams, RM

publication date

• April 2001

publisher

• Springer Nature  Publisher

published in

• Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change  Journal

keywords

• 13 Climate Action
• 37 Earth Sciences
• 3702 Climate Change Science
• 38 Economics

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1023/A:1010666107851

start page

• 147

end page

• 159

volume

• 49

issue

• 1-2

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1023%2Fa%3A1010666107851

user-defined tag

• 13 Climate Action