The value of improved enso prediction to US agriculture uri icon

abstract

  • The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million.

published proceedings

  • CLIMATIC CHANGE

altmetric score

  • 14

author list (cited authors)

  • Solow, A. R., Adams, R. F., Bryant, K. J., Legler, D. M., O'Brien, J. J., McCarl, B. A., Nayda, W., & Weiher, R.

citation count

  • 95

complete list of authors

  • Solow, AR||Adams, RF||Bryant, KJ||Legler, DM||O'Brien, JJ||McCarl, BA||Nayda, W||Weiher, R

publication date

  • May 1998