The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture Academic Article uri icon


  • The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million.

altmetric score

  • 14

author list (cited authors)

  • Solow, A. R., Adams, R. F., Bryant, K. J., Legler, D. M., O'Brien, J. J., McCarl, B. A., Nayda, W., & Weiher, R.

citation count

  • 80

publication date

  • May 1998