Egypt's economic vulnerability to climate change Academic Article uri icon


  • 2014 Inter-Research. Climate change is likely to have profound economic consequences for Egypt. This study evaluates the potential economic impacts resulting from changes in water supplies, agriculture, air quality, heat stress, and tourism. Other sensitive sectors, including water pollution, energy consumption, and biodiversity, were not assessed. Sea level rise threatens agricultural land and property in the Nile Delta. Higher temperatures can reduce agricultural production, a situation that can be made worse with lower water supplies. As a result, unemployment and food prices may increase, risking increased malnutrition. Human health in Cairo could be adversely affected by increased particulate matter and heat stress, potentially leading to thousands of deaths valued at tens of billions of Egyptian pounds per year. Annual tourist revenues are estimated to decrease as well. Total economic losses for the sectors mentioned above are estimated to reach 200 to 350 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP; US 36?64 billion), which is equivalent to 2?6% of future gross domestic product.

published proceedings


altmetric score

  • 3

author list (cited authors)

  • Smith, J. B., McCarl, B. A., Kirshen, P., Jones, R., Deck, L., Abdrabo, M. A., ... Hynninen, R.

citation count

  • 13
  • 14

complete list of authors

  • Smith, Joel B||McCarl, Bruce A||Kirshen, Paul||Jones, Russell||Deck, Leland||Abdrabo, Mohamed A||Borhan, Mohamed||El-Ganzori, Akram||El-Shamy, Mohamed||Hassan, Mohamed||El-Shinnawy, Ibrahim||Abraboug, Mohamed||Hassanein, Mosaad Kotb||El-Agizy, Mona||Bayoumi, Mohamed||Hynninen, Riina

publication date

  • December 2014