Prediction of first onset of congestive heart failure in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease: the PREDICT cohort study. Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for first-onset congestive heart failure (CHF) in dogs with degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). ANIMALS: Eighty-two dogs with and without CHF secondary to DMVD were retrospectively assigned to a derivation cohort. Sixty-five dogs with asymptomatic DMVD were recruited into a prospective validation cohort. METHODS: Variables associated with risk of CHF in dogs were identified in a derivation cohort and used to construct a predictive model, which was then prospectively tested through longitudinal examination of a validation cohort. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis of the derivation cohort yielded a predictive model that included the left atrial to aortic root dimension ratio (LA:Ao) and plasma concentration of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). When this model was prospectively applied to the validation cohort, it correctly predicted first-onset of CHF in 69.2% of cases. Analysis of the validation cohort revealed that plasma NT-proBNP concentration and indexed left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVIDd:Ao) were independent risk factors for development of first-onset CHF in dogs with DMVD (NT-proBNP 1500 pmol/L, odds ratio (OR), 5.76, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.37-24.28, P = 0.017; LVIDd:Ao 3, OR, 6.11, 95% CI, 1.09-34.05, P = 0.039). CONCLUSIONS: Measures of left heart size and plasma NT-proBNP concentration independently estimate risk of first-onset of CHF in dogs with DMVD. These parameters can contribute to the management of dogs with DMVD.

published proceedings

  • J Vet Cardiol

altmetric score

  • 0.25

author list (cited authors)

  • Reynolds, C. A., Brown, D. C., Rush, J. E., Fox, P. R., Nguyenba, T. P., Lehmkuhl, L. B., ... Oyama, M. A.

citation count

  • 83

complete list of authors

  • Reynolds, Caryn A||Brown, Dorothy Cimino||Rush, John E||Fox, Philip R||Nguyenba, Thaibihn P||Lehmkuhl, Linda B||Gordon, Sonya G||Kellihan, Heidi B||Stepien, Rebecca L||Lefbom, Bonnie K||Meier, C Kate||Oyama, Mark A

publication date

  • January 2012