How adoption rates, timing, and ceilings affect the value of ENSO-based climate forecasts Academic Article

abstract

• An international wheat trade model incorporating climate variability is used to simulate different scenarios when wheat producers in the USA, Canada, and Australia adopt El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate forecasts for use in production decisions. Adoption timing and rates are varied across countries in the different scenarios. The results are consistent between the scenarios examined. Early adopters benefit the most, there is no incentive for more producers to adopt after 60 to 95% have adopted (meaning the adoption ceiling has been reached), and slower adoption corresponds to ceilings closer to 60 than 95%. When individual countries must decide whether or not to invest in ENSO technology and producer education programs to encourage adoption, results indicate the dominant strategy for each country is to invest. This is especially true if producers in other countries are adopting the use of climate forecasts. 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

authors

• Mjelde, James

published proceedings

• CLIMATIC CHANGE

altmetric score

• 5

author list (cited authors)

• Rubas, D. J., Mjelde, J. W., Love, H. A., & Rosenthal, W.

citation count

• 4

complete list of authors

• Rubas, Debra J||Mjelde, James W||Love, H Alan||Rosenthal, Wesley

publication date

• February 2008

publisher

• Springer Nature  Publisher

published in

• Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change  Journal

keywords

• 37 Earth Sciences
• 38 Economics
• 3801 Applied Economics

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1007/s10584-007-9293-9

start page

• 235

end page

• 256

volume

• 86

issue

• 3-4

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1007%2Fs10584-007-9293-9