Using the Southern Oscillation to forecast Texas winter wheat and sorghum crop yields uri icon

abstract

  • Time series models are used to examine the impact of Southern Oscillation (SO) extreme events in estimating and forecasting Texas sorghum and winter wheat yields. It is shown that a significant correlation between the SO events and yield does not necessarily translate into better forecasts. Including SO events in forecasting yields decreases the forecasts mean squared error for winter wheat, but has no significant impact on sorghum forecasts. Tke most important factor impacting yields over the dataset length (1876-1993 for wheat aad 1924-92 for sorghum) is technological change. The change is more important for the period after World War II. Examming the dataset by periods, before rapid technology change and after, indicates the SO impacts crop yields differently between periods.

published proceedings

  • JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

author list (cited authors)

  • Mjelde, J. W., & Keplinger, K.

citation count

  • 22

complete list of authors

  • Mjelde, JW||Keplinger, K

publication date

  • January 1998