Modeling Pavement Fragility
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Pavement performance models are the key to efficient designs and effective management practices. Over the years, a number of researchers have developed reliability models to account for the uncertainty in pavement responses and utilization patterns. However, these efforts were mostly directed toward coupled capacity-demand limit state functions that do not take into account the discontinuities after the application of rehabilitation actions (e.g., overlays). The aim of this paper is to develop a pavement fragility modeling framework that accounts for the effects of the rehabilitation actions. The fragility, defined as the conditional probability of failure given a unit level of utilization, uncouples the reliability function into the capacity and demand functions, which are two separate areas of study in pavement engineering. Closed-form approximations of the fragility curves are developed to illustrate the process and allow for seamless integration in design and management optimization models. 2010 ASCE.
Journal of Transportation Engineering
author list (cited authors)
Deshpande, V. P., Damnjanovic, I. D., & Gardoni, P.
complete list of authors
Deshpande, Vighnesh P||Damnjanovic, Ivan D||Gardoni, Paolo