Probabilistic assessment of vulnerability to landslide: Application to the village of Lichtenstein, Baden-Wrttemberg, Germany Academic Article uri icon


  • Landslides are responsible for a considerable loss of buildings and infrastructure and often human lives. Although most of the studies concerning landslide disasters are concentrated on landslide risk assessment, zoning and monitoring, there are few studies focusing in its vulnerability component, particularly for inhabited areas. This paper explores the applicability of a new methodology for landslide vulnerability assessment that allows for a simplified probabilistic estimation of vulnerability to landslides. This is based on the First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) approach, which allows for the quantification of uncertainty from the input parameters up to the vulnerability estimates. Results on the application of the method show vulnerability estimates for susceptible categories on structures and people for prescribed study areas. These are given in the form of expected values and ranges of variation, according to uncertainty measures given by intensity and susceptibility parameters. Due to the expert-based nature of the vulnerability methodology, fine judgement is expected to accompany the interpretations of results. 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

published proceedings

  • Engineering Geology

author list (cited authors)

  • Kaynia, A. M., Papathoma-Khle, M., Neuhuser, B., Ratzinger, K., Wenzel, H., & Medina-Cetina, Z.

citation count

  • 63

complete list of authors

  • Kaynia, AM||Papathoma-Köhle, M||Neuhäuser, B||Ratzinger, K||Wenzel, H||Medina-Cetina, Z

publication date

  • January 2008