Probabilistic Estimate of Global Coalbed Methane Recoverable Resources
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AbstractBecause today's oil and gas industry recognizes the value of coalbed methane (CBM) resources, CBM exploration and development activities, once uniquely North American, are now under way on a global scale. Many publications address technically recoverable resources (TRR) of CBM in small geographic areas. However, there is little publicly information about the magnitude of TRR for coalbed methane on a global scale. Uncertainty exists in geologic and engineering data and, consequently, in the results of calculations made with these data. The uncertainty of the problem begs for a probabilistic solution.Our objective was to determine distribution of CBM TRR worldwide. To achieve this goal, we developed a computer program, called Unconventional Gas Resource Assessment System (UGRAS). The program integrates a Monte Carlo technique with an analytical reservoir simulator. The combination provides an excellent means to predict production profiles for a wide variety of reservoir characteristics and producing conditions. Using UGRAS, we established the probabilistic distribution of original gas-in-place (OGIP), TRR and recovery factor (RF) for selected coals in U.S. and derived a representative recovery factor distribution for CBM reservoirs. CBM recovery factors follow a log-logistic distribution, with a P50 of 38%. We extended the distribution of gas recovery factors gained from our analyses of U.S. coals to estimate global CBM TRR. Global technically recoverable CBM is estimated to be 500 (P90) to 3,000 (P10) Tcf, with a P50 value of 1,600 Tcf.UGRAS is a robust tool that may be used to evaluate and rank coalbed methane gas resources worldwide. Results of this work verify the existence of significant technically recoverable coalbed methane resources worldwide and can guide industry to better target its exploitation efforts in coals, worldwide.
