Sanding onset prediction models are used to forecast the production condition, e.g. pressure drawdown or flow rate, at which sand production occurs. A sanding onset prediction model is critical for sand control decision-making in answering the questions whether or not sand control should be used, or when to use sand control. There are a variety of numerical and analytical sanding onset prediction models available in the literature. However most of those models either need one or another rock mechanics input parameter which is rarely available in field practice or demand extensive computations (e.g. Finite Element models) that is not practical in cases when quick sand control decision is needed. As a result, the usage of those models in field practice is limited.
In this paper, simple and easy-to-use analytical sanding onset prediction models are derived based on theory of poroelastoplasticity assuming shear failure or tensile stress induced sanding from open hole well or from the perforations of a cased well. To use those models, the only rock mechanics parameters needed are Biot's constant, Poisson's ratio, Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS), and in-situ stresses. With those data, a critical drawdown pressure for a well can be obtained for any given average reservoir pressure.
Using those models, published and field reported sanding problems are studied. Through this study, sanding mechanisms for those cases are explained and good agreement is reached between predicted and field measured critical drawdown pressure.