JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENT OF FORECASTS - A COMPARISON OF METHODS Academic Article

abstract

• Attention has recently been given to combinations of subjective and objective forecasts to improve forecast accuracy. This research offers an extension on this theme by comparing two methods that can be used to adjust an objective forecast. Wolfe and Flores (1990) show that ARIMA forecasts can be judgmentally adjusted by analysts using a structured approach based on Saaty's analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the centroid method is introduced as a vehicle for forecast adjustment and is compared to the AHP. While the AHP allows for finer tuning in reflecting decision maker judgement, the centroid method produces very similar results and is much simpler to use in the forecast adjustment process. 1992.

authors

• Wolfe, Christopher

published proceedings

• INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

author list (cited authors)

• FLORES, B. E., OLSON, D. L., & WOLFE, C.

citation count

• 30

complete list of authors

• FLORES, BE||OLSON, DL||WOLFE, C

publication date

• January 1992

publisher

• Elsevier  Publisher

published in

• International Journal of Forecasting  Journal

keywords

• Analytic Hierarchy Process (ahp)
• Centroid Method
• Earnings Forecasts
• Judgmental Adjustment

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90027-7

start page

• 421

end page

• 433

volume

• 7

issue

• 4

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1016%2F0169-2070%2892%2990027-7