THE ACCURACY OF EXTRAPOLATION (TIME-SERIES) METHODS - RESULTS OF A FORECASTING COMPETITION Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition. Copyright 1982 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

published proceedings

  • JOURNAL OF FORECASTING

altmetric score

  • 6

author list (cited authors)

  • MAKRIDAKIS, S., ANDERSEN, A., CARBONE, R., FILDES, R., HIBON, M., LEWANDOWSKI, R., ... WINKLER, R.

citation count

  • 1038

complete list of authors

  • MAKRIDAKIS, S||ANDERSEN, A||CARBONE, R||FILDES, R||HIBON, M||LEWANDOWSKI, R||NEWTON, J||PARZEN, E||WINKLER, R

publication date

  • January 1982

publisher