Predicting the risk of nephrotoxicity in patients receiving colistimethate sodium: a multicentre, retrospective, cohort study
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OBJECTIVES: With increasing rates of infections caused by MDR Gram-negative organisms, clinicians resort to older agents such as colistimethate sodium (CMS) despite a significant risk of nephrotoxicity. Several risk factors for CMS-associated nephrotoxicity have been reported, but they have yet to be validated. We compared the performance of published mathematical models in predicting the risk of CMS-associated nephrotoxicity. METHODS: In a multicentre, retrospective, cohort study, adult patients (≥18 years of age) were evaluated from five large academic medical centres in the USA. Patients with normal renal function (baseline serum creatinine ≤1.5 mg/dL) who received intravenous CMS for ≥72 h were followed for up to 30 days. The development of nephrotoxicity was as defined by the RIFLE criteria. Each published model was conditioned using patient-specific variables to predict the risk of nephrotoxicity. The predictive performance of the models was evaluated using the observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio. The most significant cut-off threshold for stratifying patients into high and low risk of nephrotoxicity was identified using classification and regression tree analysis. RESULTS: A total of 106 patients were examined (mean age 53.3 ± 14.9 years, 66% male); the overall observed nephrotoxicity rate was 52.8%. We identified a simple model demonstrating reasonable overall nephrotoxicity risk assessment [O/E ratio of 1.07 (95% CI = 0.81-1.39)] and high sensitivity (92.9%) in predicting nephrotoxicity development in patients on CMS therapy. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a model that could be incorporated into patient management strategies to reduce the risk of nephrotoxicity in patients requiring CMS therapy.
author list (cited authors)
Phe, K., Shields, R. K., Tverdek, F. P., Aitken, S. L., Guervil, D. J., Lam, W., ... Tam, V. H.