FORECASTING GLOBAL ICE VOLUME Academic Article uri icon

abstract

  • Abstract. Forecasts and associated probability limits of total ice volume for the next 100 000 years are found based upon a historical record of 440 000 years of oxygen18 from deep sea cores. The forecasts are found using two different time series models, one based on the assumption that ice volume contains deterministic sinusoids, and one assuming that the record contains disturbed periodicities, i.e. the sinusoids do not have the same cycle length and amplitude from one cycle to another. The results for the two models are seen to be very similar, with both predicting a small probability for a future ice volume event to be as large as the last ice age, which was one of the largest glaciations of the last 2 million years. Copyright 1991, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved

published proceedings

  • Journal of Time Series Analysis

author list (cited authors)

  • Newton, H. J., North, G. R., & Crowley, T. J.

citation count

  • 10

complete list of authors

  • Newton, H Joseph||North, Gerald R||Crowley, Thomas J

publication date

  • May 1991

publisher