Ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation with MM5 Academic Article uri icon


  • The performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) under imperfect model conditions is investigated through simultaneous state and parameter estimation for a numerical weather prediction model of operational complexity (MM5). The source of model error is assumed to be the uncertainty in the vertical eddy mixing coefficient. Assimilations are performed with a 12hour interval with simulated sounding and surface observations of horizontal winds and temperature. The mean estimated parameter value nicely converges to the true value within a satisfactory level of variability due to sufficient model sensitivity to parameter uncertainty and detectable (relative to ensemble sampling noise) correlation signal between the parameter and observed variables.

published proceedings


author list (cited authors)

  • Aksoy, A., Zhang, F., & Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.

citation count

  • 102

complete list of authors

  • Aksoy, Altug||Zhang, Fuqing||Nielsen-Gammon, John W

publication date

  • June 2006