A multistage error-growth conceptual model for mesoscale predictability
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A multistage error-growth conceptual model was developed by examining the forecast difference between two cloud-resolving simulations. In the initial stage, errors first grow from small-scale convective instability but then quickly saturate at the convective scales on time scales of 0(1 h). In the transitional stage, the errors transform from convective-scale unbalanced motions through geostrophic adjustment and/or cold-pool dynamics. In the final stage, the balanced components of the errors project onto the large-scale flow and grow with the background baroclinic instability. An examination of the difference-error energy budget revealed that bouyancy production due mostly to moist convection is comparable to shear production due to nonlinear advection.
author list (cited authors)
Zhang, F. Q., Bei, N., Epifanio, C. C., Rotunno, R., & Snyder, C.