Tropical Pacific decadal variability and global warming Academic Article

abstract

• An analysis of ocean surface temperature records show that low frequency changes of tropical Pacific temperature lead global surface air temperature changes by about 4 years. Anomalies of tropical Pacific surface temperature are in turn preceded by subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific by approximately 7 years. The results suggest that much of the decade to decade variations in global air temperature may be attributed to tropical Pacific decadal variability. The results also suggest that subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific can be used as a predictor for decadal variations of global surface air temperature. Since the southern tropical Pacific temperature shows a distinct cooling over the last 8 years, the possibility exists that the warming trend in global surface air temperature observed since the late 1970's may soon weaken.

authors

• Giese, Benjamin

published proceedings

• GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

altmetric score

• 3

author list (cited authors)

• Bratcher, A. J., & Giese, B. S.

citation count

• 29

complete list of authors

• Bratcher, AJ||Giese, BS

publication date

• October 2002

publisher

• American Geophysical Union (AGU)  Publisher

published in

• Geophysical Research Letters  Journal

keywords

• 37 Earth Sciences
• 3702 Climate Change Science
• 3708 Oceanography

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

• 10.1029/2002GL015191

start page

• 24-1-24-4

end page

• 21

volume

• 29

issue

• 19

URL

• http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1029%2F2002gl015191