The stochastical approach applied to CO 2 corrosion modelling
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Corrosion assessment is an integral part of predictive maintenance for Capital (CAPEX) and Operational expenditure (OPEX) estimations. In such cases a risk based approach yields results that can be easily implemented. The results from deterministic (mechanistic or semi empirical) corrosion models are valid for the "general" rate of dissolution based on mass and charge balance on the exposed surface, however they have limited use for the quantitative assessment of corrosion related risk assessment. The present work introduces a general stochastical algorithm for the calculation of the CO 2 related distribution of corrosion damage penetrations at any given time interval, coupled with the corrosion rates predicted by conventional deterministic models. The model is validated by directly comparing the simulation output with actual inspection results from different real cases. The results obtained indicate that the stochastical modeling of CO 2 corrosion from mechanistic principles allows the assessment of failure probabilities in a quantitative manner. Additionally the application of the probabilistic approach as a methodology for the evaluation of the likelihood of failure in active corrosion conditions readily simplifies the analysis of the combined effects such as: inorganic scale deposition, flow and chemical inhibition. 2012 by NACE International.
